Sales are at one of their peaks./10! what’s the future of the motorcycle industry?

They say, "We can't sell bikes.
As it should be, current motorcycle sales areOne of the best times./10There is only one.
This will be nothing more than a 'drastic reduction'.
The number of units sold is down 00% from last year, and the average age of the riders is 54.These days in the motorcycle industry, we hear nothing but gloomy stories about being 7 years old and so on.

Shh!
Not so much, huh? Is it surprising to say that?

WebiQ is here to bring you a little happiness and motorcycle knowledge.
It's too early to be pessimistic just because sales are only 10% of what they were at their peak! This is a bit of a hopeful story.

This is the number of motorcycles shipped since 2006

From Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Inc.
As you can see.
The rapid descent never stops. ......
There are plenty of reasons why bikes don't sell, and, well, there's no way around it: .......
I'm done with the bike.

That's usually how people argue.

Which genres are losing sales?

Now look again at the earlier graph here.
At a glance, it's the first type of moped that has seen a steep drop in sales.
On the other hand, it doesn't seem to be that much of a drop in the displacement category except for moped 1.

This is actually true, and while there is some movement from year to year, there hasn't been much change in sales in the 126cc and above displacement category since long ago.
The composition of one type of moped as a percentage of total sales is so large that other displacement trends are simply not visible.

Overall sales are down, butOnly 50cc mopeds are down.It is.
Zachary, this is the truth.

The reason why mopeds (50cc) are no longer selling well

I think there are several factors, and the motorcycle industry is scrambling to eliminate those factors.
But is it really?

They were oversold to begin with.

Sales peaked in 1982 (about 3,285,000 units)/(1964), which at the time was so radical that it was called the "H-Y War" between Honda and Yamaha.competition for sales volumewas taking place.
It is said that 50cc models, which could earn the most sales volume, were considered to be the supreme proposition to earn a lot of units at a low profit, and some models were sold at a loss.

It was the dawn of motorization.

Nowadays it's rather normal to have a car in every household, but in the 1970s, private cars were still not widely available.
The car was a very expensive vehicle and not one that could be bought with impunity.
(It's still not something I can easily afford.)

The Tomei Expressway opened to traffic in 1969, so motorcycle sales peaked 13 years later.
You can't buy an expensive car, but if you want to keep up with the changes in the rapidly developing living environment and survive conveniently, you need to have a "car".I needed some form of transportation.'
A moped scooter is now available to satisfy those demands!

The 50cc scooter, which was lightweight, easy to operate, easy to operate, and inexpensive, gained tremendous support from the people who thought motorcycles were too big and heavy to ride, and that kabobs were small and light but had to be shifty.
It was the dawn of Japanese motorization.of.

Other factors

Mandatory helmet wearing, the 3-night campaign, the decline of biker gangs, stricter enforcement of on-street parking, emissions regulations, noise regulations ......, there are many reasons for this, and the industry seems to think that these regulations are the cause of the moped slump, but that's not the essence of the decline I don't think so.

the long and short of it is thatIt was crazy at the peak of sales volume.of.
As lifestyles shift from human-powered transportation, such as walking and bicycling, to a lifestyle in which personal mobility is becoming more prevalent (motorization), mopeds are now the most affordable means of transportation.
That's when the "easy way to get around = scooter" vehicle appeared, and that's just what everyone wanted.
I think that's all it was, in a nutshell.

Will moped 1 sales return?

No return.
Mopeds played a huge role in the flowering of motorization in Japan, but now that motorization has become commonplace, their role has been shifted to electric bicycles and more convenient light cars.
The characteristics of the scooters, which were popular for their "light weight, easy to use, easy to operate, and low price", can be understood by applying them to today's light cars (ATs).

Not at ...... because moped 1 is so regulated and inconvenient.The role we want our scooters to play has changed.That's probably what it means.
Once, innecessities of lifeIt's not only a tool for work, it's also a tool for delivery, and a link between electric bicycles and light vehicles.A convenient way to get around the halfway pointShouldn't we see this as a change in the significance of our existence to the "new"?

The motorcycle industry can't forget the sales numbers of the past, and it's back to that glory! For the above reasons, I don't think it's right to aim for a path of increasing sales volume.
The demand we once had isn't there anymore.So sales volumes should fall to the point where they are in balance with demand.
No one knows on what scale it will be, but it is certain to be an even bigger drop than it is now.

But then, he was primarily in the business of selling and repairing moped scooters.'Old-fashioned town bike shop' is in big troubleIt is.
Simply put, sales1/It's less than 10.
At the crossroads between changing the direction of the store and closing it down, manufacturers are moving to reorganize their dealers.

In the future.A small bike shop in town.has been reduced in number.Large mass merchandisers and large dealership storesThe main body of sales shifted toPrivate shops with special maintenance skillsI expect that the composition will be such that there will be a small amount of

Is everything but 50cc safe?

If you only look at the sales figures, it looks safe.

Motorcycles over 50cc are 'a vehicle that cannot be ridden without a motorcycle license', so this is a genre that is more of a hobby than a practical one.
And.There will always be a certain number of people who love motorcycles enough to make it a hobby.The number of units sold over 51cc isIt hasn't changed much since the beginning of time.This can be read from the fact that.

But given the circumstances that lie aheadIt's simply not a safe bet.

Moped Class 2 (~125cc)

The four-wheeled world is one step ahead of the two-wheeled world, so knowing the state of the four-wheeled world will give you an idea of where two-wheeled vehicles are headed in the future.

First.The world is moving toward electrification.
Is that really good for the environment? There is no doubt that the world is moving toward electrification, although I personally have great doubts about
Quiet, full of torque from the start, low fuel (electricity) bills, low mechanical failures due to the simplicity of the structure, and no exhaust fumes.
If you look at the short-term benefits, with a little meditation on the price, durability and range issues, electric cars are the best way to get around town.

In such a situation, practicality is most important in this class.Little progress has been made in electrification.
Electrification still has problems with battery charging time and other issues, but the lack of electrification in this class, which is mainly for short distance travel applications, is notIt's a pretty bad situation.Maybe.

For light and small motorcycles (from 126cc)

It's safe for now.
But, as I wrote above, considering the "situation that's coming up later,If we don't, we'll be impoverished.It is.

So what is that "situation that's coming up later"?

New regulations, Euro 6!

In the world of four-wheeled vehicles, regulation of exhaust gas purification began in the 1960s.
The famous U.S. Muskie Act of 1970 significantly tightened regulations in order to break through theSignificantly reduced dynamic performanceThis invites the
Technological advancements have overcome this, but one after another, regulations have been tightened up to the present day.

Two-wheeled vehicles, which have fewer absolute numbers than four-wheeled vehicles, haven't had emissions and other regulations for a long time.Regulation began in earnest in the late 1990s.
It's still fresh in our minds that two-stroke engines and cars with carburetors have disappeared from the lineup, not only because of regulations in other countries, but also because of Japan's own strict regulations (Japan tends to have stricter regulations on noise than the world's standards).

Currently, Japan's own emissions standards have been changed to international standards, and the 2020 regulations, known as Euro 5, are in effect.
As you can see in the table, the changes in regulatory values for emissions and other factors, which have become stricter and stricter every year for the past 20 years, are no mean feat.
In addition to this, there are additional noise regulations that get stricter every year, so we are not just talking about this.

However, manufacturers have created low-noise engines that are highly electronically controlled and have intake and exhaust systems with catalysts and reduction systems.
Especially after Euro 3, the method of constantly monitoring exhaust gas conditions and feeding back to the injection control system became widespread and modernized at once.

All of the new cars coming this year in 2020 are great, and all of them are breaking these regulations.
One by one, vehicles have been introduced that squeeze out the strongest power ever while breaking the strictest regulations, and the improvement in performance, especially for larger vehicles, has been astounding.
Thirty years ago, I remember the original CBR900RR's output was just over 120 horsepower, and the modern CBR1000RR-R nearly doubled that with almost the same displacement, breaking the strictest regulations, to nearly 218 horsepower!
A triumph of technology! You're an ersatz manufacturer!

The really bad news is Euro 6, which is coming up in 2024.

The details of the regulations are yet to be determined.
But in this Euro 6.Significantly tighter regulations.It's been said.
That's exactly what happened in 1970.Muskie methodto.

I wrote that the world is moving toward electrification, and I think there is a desire to promote this.
There are political aims in this area, so it's hard to say it's simply "for the sake of the environment," but it's a dramatic regulation, anyway.The gasoline engine's fangs will be uprooted.Prediction.
I'll never get over it again!

A ban on gasoline engine sales by 2030?

It has already been announced that European countries will ban the sale of vehicles equipped with internal combustion engines such as gasoline and diesel from 2030.
The United Kingdom, France, Spain and others have also declared a total ban, and if all goes well, there will be no more bans in 20 years' time.By 2040, the sale of vehicles with gasoline engines (both four and two-wheeled) will be banned in many countries around the world.
There's no chance that eventually it will be banned from driving on public roads in gasoline-powered vehicles, including those of the past.
Muffler, carburetor, air cleaner, etc.The engine related industry is in big trouble.It is.

On the lead up to the start of Euro 6 regulations

In the 1960s, when there were virtually no emission or safety standards, there was almost no boundary between racing and sports cars, and radical cars could be driven on public roads as they were in racing cars.
Those cars are inferior to modern cars in terms of power, but they are still superlative in terms of lightness.
When it comes to "fun to drive", it's better than the latest models of today.

That same situation was true for bikes in the 90s.
It's a racer replica with an SP kit.
There are no electronic controls whatsoever, so it's very difficult to ride, but that difficulty and mendacity was part of the appeal of the extreme ride.

And today.
Advances in electronic control technology have made it possible for both cars and motorcycles toA decade ago, it was a dream come true for manufacturers to produce extreme monsters that could ride at will with maximum output.
And this is a vehicle powered by an internal combustion engine.last lightIt will be.
Ten or twenty years later.We're in a situation where people say, "Those were great times.of.
If you like extreme, ultra-high performance cars, now is definitely the 'time to buy'.

environmental issues, noise issues, health issues and political speculation after 2024 (when Euro 6 is implemented).Nowadays, we have more high-performance internal combustion engine vehicles.They don't appear.It's very possible.It is.
Even if you have to push a little harder.The Last Gasoline Monster.Maybe you should buy a
New cars and new engines are not easy to develop, so the lineup that we have now may really be the last.
Again, until Euro 6 is triggered.There are only three years left.

On the coming electrification of the near future

Rides should have sounds and vibrations and smells.'
I understand that opinion.
And I'm one of those people.
But that doesn't mean we should deny everything electric.

It's true that not so long ago, electrics were a child's trick, so they may be perceived as low-performing.Modern electrics are extremely high performance.It is.
Unlike the electrification of four-wheeled vehicles, which is more practical, the electrification of a hobby bike will require performance beyond that of a gasoline engine.
But thisIt's easy to accomplish.I think.

Already, the best times of all time in Pikes Peak (a hill climb race held in the US) have been beaten by electric cars, and even in competition-specific radio-controlled cars, there is almost no difference between engine and electric times.
Generates maximum torque at startupMotor characteristics are better suited to motorcycles.I even think.
If you're familiar with single-cylinders and V-twins, it's easy to imagine that.

Perhaps in the future motorcycles will have all sorts of tuning parts like electric radio-controlled cars, and the tuner's job will be to control the amps, wiring, and high output batteries.
Maybe a whole new motor tuner will emerge and thrive.
Even if the power source is changed from the engine to the motor, the performance required of the vehicle remains the same.
To be able to withstand the large amount of torque with output characteristics that are completely different from those of a gasoline four-cylinder, a different kind of chassis know-how will be required.

It doesn't have the sounds, vibrations and smells of an internal combustion engine, but on a bare power bike, it does have the 'sounds, vibrations and smells that only a motor can make.

Whatever the motive force is, as long as you're balancing the car on two tires.The allure of motorcycles is eternal.It is.
Whatever the motive force is, we can service the body.Bike shops are forever immortal.It is.

summary

That's all.A personal prediction with little evidence.But it's onlyI also have a feeling that I have a pretty good chance of hitting it.

But no matter how much times change.As long as it's 'a strange vehicle with only two tires that will tip over if people don't ride it and keep it balanced,' the appeal of motorcycles is indestructible.

My concern is that we're going to go in the direction of 'safe bikes with electronic gyroscopes that can even be driven automatically without ever tipping over' .......
If we evolve in that direction, motorcycles may perish because they are 'just an inconvenient vehicle' compared to cars.
I hope that won't happen.